In other words, some individuals still make quite large positive offers, Copyright 2018 by SAGE Publications, Inc. Thus, the Dictator Game allows the experimenter to distinguish between proposers who make positive offers out of a sense of fairness and those who make positive offers out of a fear of rejection. M(HS VzIZY Typically, as a rule of thumb, we say that we have found a statistically significant relationship whenever the coefficient is bigger than twice the size of the standard error. Quality of Government Institute. Although we have not addressed cultural diversity in this chapter, there is reason to think that high levels of cultural diversity may make countries less compatible with democracy. As you can see, whereas Catholicism seemed to pose some difficulties for democracy from the perspective of 1976, this was no longer the case from the perspective of 2004. Do Religiousnot group copy, hypothesis: Countries post, with a large number or of religious distribute groups are less likely to become and stay democratic. . Write down two questions that you think should be put on a survey to elicit useful information about a countrys level of democratic stability. Unfortunately, addressing reverse causality by employing alternative designs such as instrumental variable (IV) regressions or (natural) experiments is beyond the scope of this study. New York: Cambridge University Press. A relatively large average estimated within-country effect also is found (with considerable uncertainty) when using Polity, DD/ACLP and BMR, but not when using V-Dem. Although the 95% confidence intervals overlap zero for the Cold War sample when V-Dem is used, the finding is robust. Faced with that problem, we could have added all variables independent of missing values (Gassebner etal. In addition to those key results, we provide a template for democracy researchers to assess sensitivity in a comprehensive manner. The legacy of western overseas colonialism on democratic survival. Concerning political and institutional concepts, we include (7) political system features. Minor premise: Catholic countries are more likely to be democracies than dictatorships. In the full time series, income does not relate to democratization systematically when using the Polity, DD/ACLP and BMR democracy measures. Source: Henrich and colleagues (2005). The strategies by which tyrannical regimes were created throughout history, can be simplified in 3 steps. because rich democracies survive longer than poor ones. (2013), exploring 59 determinants of democratization and democratic survival using data from 1976 to 2002 for 165 countries.Footnote 1 Yet, our analysis is different from theirs in several important respects. For a poor person, switching to a dictatorship is a gamble they are Nonexperimental Research 12. Having set out the framework for studying transitions from authoritarianism to democracy and vice versa, Acemoglu and Robinson then use their basic framework to examine standard arguments about the factors that make the emergence and consolidation of democracy more or less likely. The aggregate coefficients therefore represent direct effects. The debate mainly has revolved around whether something else about Muslim-majority countries makes them less susceptible to democratization, and the related issue of including the appropriate controls in regression analyses. What we really want to know is whether democracy can be transplanted to countries dominated by different religions. d. How does the Coordination and Democracy Game help illustrate the notion that the coordination of beliefs between different groups in society might be considered a democratic culturesomething that is necessary for democracy to emerge and survive? Clark, Golder and Golder : The Economic Determinants of Democracy, Classic modernization theory argues that countries are more likely to become The coefficient on Catholic majority is not statistically significant, meaning that we cannot confidently rule out the possibility that there is no relationship between Catholicism and the survival of democracy. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural. active participation in politics), but continue to honor the legitimacy of the government. Laboratory Experiment 10. help countries become democratic While consensus exists on some empirical relationships, studies often find weak or conflicting results despite plausible theoretical claims. We willnow discuss robust determinants of democratization and democratic survival. A negative coefficient indicates that an increase in the independent variable is associated with a reduction in the probability that a country will become a democracy. How is it measured? Islam and authoritarianism. The right edge of the lightly shaded horizontal gray bar gives the mean offer for that group. Yet, in combination, the results add nuance the findings above; it is not clear that a democratic country becomes less prone to breaking down as it becomes wealthier. As we indicate in this chapter, though, a quick glance at the history of these types of arguments should make one very cautious of unthink- Doingly not accepting that copy, certain religions are incompatiblepost, with democracy.or distributeFor example, some political scientists used to claim as recently as the 1970s that Catholicism was antithetical to, Copyright 2018 by SAGE Publications, Inc. 7: The Cultural Determinants of Democracy and Dictatorship 265. We follow a similar approach for other results reported below; see online Appendix C for results. Leamer, E. (1985). >> Recall that the sign of the coefficient is important because it tells us the, Copyright 2018 by SAGE Publications, Inc. What do you think a researcher would find if she examined the relationship between Catholicism and democracy in 1976? First, while Sala-i-Martin applied the method to a continuous dependent variable, we model the relationship between predictors and dichotomous dependent variables using the logit-link function and standard errors clustered by country. (1973, 259260) describes primordial cultural attach- ments, which for him include things like bloodlines, lan- guage, race, religion, and customs, as stemming from the givens . In this books concluding chapter, we will explore the possibility that particular types of political institutions may make democratic consolidation difficult. A thoroughly-revised chapter on culture and democracy includes a more extensive discussion of cultural modernization theory and a new overview of survey methods for addressing sensitive. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-019-00742-z, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-019-00742-z. This is because democracy means different things to different people around the world. Stanford: Stanford University Press. average income is high rather than low Huntington, S. P. (1991). THE CULTURAL DETERMINANTS OF DEMOCRACY AND DICTATORSHIP Classical Cultural Arguments: Mill and Montesquieu Does Democracy Require a Civic Culture? [and] these changes make democracy increasingly likely to emerge where it does not yet exist, and to become stronger and more direct where it already exists. The claims made by Montesquieu and Mill regarding culture and democracy illustrate several potential problems that characterize some cultural arguments to this day (Przeworski, Cheibub, and Limongi 1998). One of the earliest arguments dates to Montesquieu, who claimed that Islam had a violent streak that predisposed Muslim societies to authoritarianism. Marshall, M.G., Gurr, T.R., & Jaggers, K. (2018). According to Fukuyama, the important legacy of traditional Confucianism is not its political teaching but rather the personal ethic that regulates attitudes toward family, work, education, and other elements of everyday life. Both citizen groups would rather not challenge the state than participate in an unsuccessful challenge. First, we address, simultaneously, robustness to varying the control specification, sample and operationalization of the outcomes. levels of income are related to the emergence of and transition to democracy. 172 Principles of Comparative Politics I n the post-cold war era, in which the world's only superpower has suggested that it is inter - ested in spreading democracy, it is worth asking where democracy comes from and why it survives. Sensitivity analysis of empirical results on civil war onset. The different clusters indicate countries that Inglehart and Welzel identify as sharing similar Docultural not valuesthey representcopy, distinct political cultures.post, or distribute Source: http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/WVSContents.jsp, Copyright 2018 by SAGE Publications, Inc. What is Fishs dependent variable? b. may Do not copy, post, or distribute not be reproduced 7, or OVERVIEW Democracy andDictatorship The Cultural Determinantsof distributed countries cannot once sustain we democracy account take of wealth. Does culture cause political institutions, such as democracy, to, Copyright 2018 by SAGE Publications, Inc. The shift to an indus- trial society changes things. Hariri, J. G. (2015). 33 0 obj As a result, it is inappropriate to test to see whether the measure of the treatment of women affects a countrys Freedom House scorewe already know that it will by construction. Explain why these questions make Fishs statement more of a tautology than a scientific statement. Simultaneously, improved education may enhance economic efficiency and, thus, income (Bils and Klenow 2000). Gassebner etal. This means that countries with a Muslim majority are less likely to become democratic. of the publisher. d. While better survey administration, list experiments, randomized response techniques, and endorsement experiments can often mitigate concerns with sensitive survey items, Do notthey are not copy, a cure-all. The asas statement on p-values: Context, process, and purpose. American Economic Review, 87(2), 178183. In contrast to Protestantism, Catholicism has traditionally been seen as antithetical to democracy. Moreover, both scholars point to numerous noncultural things that also affect democracy such as the climate of a country, the quality of the soil, and the economy. e. What data did the researchers use to test their hypotheses? Given his dependent variable, what sign (positive or negative) does Fish predict for the coefficient on his primary explanatory variable? Dark grey = significant at .10 level. In contrast, ethnic and cultural diver- Dosity notdo seem to destabilizecopy, democracies. Could you please tell me if you strongly agree, agree, neither agree nor disagree, dis- agree, or strongly disagree? It is common practice for political scientists to place stars next to the coefficients of variables that are considered statistically significant; more stars signal higher statistical significance. Several other studies have proposed that Muslim-dominated countries are less likely to democratize, suggesting mechanisms ranging from treatment of women (Fish 2002)discrimination against women is more pronounced in Muslim-majority countries where Islam is the source of legislation (Gouda and Potrafke 2016)how religious services have been financed historically (Rothstein and Broms 2013),how autocratic incumbents exploit fears of political Islam among secular opponents to fend off liberalization (Lust 2011), to how Islamic legal institutions may impede political development by slowing down economic development (Kuran 2012). Culture, Economic Development, and Democracy: Figure 7.1 Some Potential Causal Relationships, Economic Economic development development, c. Culture Economic development Democracy, f. Economic development Democracy Culture, g. Economic development Democracy Do not copy, post, or distribute Culture, Copyright 2018 by SAGE Publications, Inc. Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher. Things look only slightly dif- ferent in the Dictator Game. This is because a respondent who answers that she agrees with none or all of the items in the list containing the sensitive item reveals her preferences about the sensitive item. M&PL's second claim focused on policy radicalism, defined as having extreme and urgent preference for a particular policy. Downloadable! A second proposed reason for the incompatibility of Islam and democracy concerns the purported inability of Islam to disassociate religious and political spheres. In this chapter, we discussed some limitations that surveys face when addressing sensitive topics. The information in Figure 7.3 illustrates that no society conforms well to the predictions for Homo economicus. Regarding other economic determinants, our results lend support to the resource curse argument. Although Dothis notis certainly true,copy, the mean offer in thepost, Dictator Game is stillor typically distribute in the 20 percent to 30 percent range. The experiments that we are going to examine involve individuals playing what are known as Ultimatum Games and Dictator Games. In contrast, the Orma had a mode at 50 percent, and the Hadza had a mode at 10 percent. What exactly would the hypotheses be? From what they wrote, however, it is hard to discern what they thought the exact causal relationship was between these factors. . For example, the Catholic Church was an open supporter of fascist Italy under Mussolini and of authoritarian Spain under Franco. dollars The state prefers not to transgress if a transgression produces a successful challenge from the two citizen groups. The supplementary syntax can be used to reproduce graphs similar to those presented below for any variable of interest. The fact that respondents dont always comprehend survey questions in the same way, perhaps because they come from different cultures, is problematic. A., & Limongi, F. (2000). Do Thenot second problem copy, relates to the purported post, causal relationship or between distribute cultural, eco- nomic, and political factors. The Mundlak estimation reveals that the incomedemocratic survival relationship is driven mainly by variation between countries. Moreover, that negative relationship is stronger during the Cold War period and vanishes afterwards. New York: Columbia University Press. If you solve the game correctly, you will find two Nash equilibria. Although the cutoff point admittedly is arbitrary (Cheibub etal. Grey = insignificant, Facilitating variables for GDP pc on democratization. Examine the survey question below that seeks to measure the level of support for racial diversity on university campuses. Critics argue that the classic modernization theory lacks a strong causal mechanism n the previous chapter, we examined the vast literature linking economic factors to the emergence and survival of democracy. On one side of the debate are schol- ars who argue that economic development produces cultural change and that it is cultural change that produces democracy (Inglehart 1990, 1997; Inglehart and Welzel 2003, 2005). In contrast, parochial cultures were compatible with the traditional political systems of African tribes, and subject cultures were compatible with centralized authoritar- ian institutions like those seen in Soviet-dominated Eastern Europe (Almond and Verba [1963] 1989, 20, 33). civic culture 228 primordialist arguments 224 constructivist arguments 224 social capital 229 Docultural not modernization copy, theory 226 post,social desirability or bias 233distribute differential item functioning 234, Copyright 2018 by SAGE Publications, Inc. One contention is that many majority-Muslim countries are Arab and that it is those countrieswhich have other anti-democratic featuresis driving the relationship (Stepan and Robertson 2003). stream Dahl, R. A., & Tufte, E. R. (1973). (2006). If the state decides to Do transgress,not then copy, the two groups of citizens, post, A and B, must simultaneouslyor distribute decide whether to acquiesce to the states transgression or challenge it. hbbd```b``d"lw0DrtH`Y0D Aug 1999 democracy versus dictatorship. /Length 269 2004). In this conceptualization, a political culture simply refers to a relatively coherent cluster of attitudes in society. As you may have realized, this method does not always guarantee that individual responses are kept confidential. In fact, many of the elements of Confucianism men- tioned above seem quite well suited to a democratic form of government. Indeed, Friedman (2002) even suggests that Buddhist and Confucian cultures may actually have more demo- cratic elements than Greco-Christian culture. Many scholars have also taken issue with the claim that Islam is incompatible on doc trinal grounds with democracy (Abootalebi 1999; Esposito and Voll 1996; Filali-Ansary 1999; Hefner 2000; Price 1999; Rahman 1979; Sachedina 2000). crown actors use their new found bargaining power to increase the >> b. This problem is com- survey items using different scales. This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher. What are the expected outcomes associated with the two Nash equilibria? We might suspect that countries with a large number of religious groups or a large number of cultural groups might also be problematic for democracy on similar grounds. It is true that Muslim countries typically have authoritarian forms of government at present. The setup of our supplementary material reduces the threshold for researchers wanting systematically to assess sensitivity pertaining to control variable selection, sample time series, and democracy measurement. For democratic survival, the only truly robust factoraside from income levelis a state bureaucracy that is law-abiding. Yet, we caution against expectations that ours is a fully automated approach to drawing robust inferenceswe are the first to acknowledge that our approach is a complement to, and not a substitute for, theory development and carefully constructed designs. . These societies exhibited a wide range of cultural and economic environments: foraging societies, slash-and-burn horticulture groups, nomadic herding groups, and sed- entary, small-scale agriculturalist societies. With so many open questions concerning appropriate control variables, democracy measurement, and time period, it is critical to examine systematically how robust the results are across different specifications. To calculate the numbers, we ran a logistic regression on our estimated results. In Figure 7.1, we illustrate some of the causal arguments that scholars have made concerning the interaction between culture, economic development, and democracy. o Indicates that a country is much more likely to be a democracy if its An extreme bounds analysis of coup determinants. The researchers expected that groups in which the payoffs to cooperation were high would, Copyright 2018 by SAGE Publications, Inc. He stated, No one believes that every people is capable of working every sort of institutions (Mill [1861] 2001, 7). Notably, future sensitivity analysis could use a set-up similar to ours to explore whether the use of different continuous variablescapturing smaller and larger upturns and downturns (Teorell 2010), also within the binary regime categories studied hereinmatter for the empirical results. The Economic Determinants of Democracy and Dictatorship . Democracy versus theocracy ibn warraq shall . Thus, the question as to whether Islam is bad for democracy because of its treatment of women remains an open question in our eyes. The culture of gift giving not only explains the generous offers made by the Au and Gnau proposers but also explains why large offers were so readily rejected by the responders; these excessively large gifts tended to produce anxiety about the unspoken strings that were attached to them. Moreover, the association between income and democratization is stronger when we consider within-country rather than between-country variation, using the Mundlak approach.
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